Tree Fruit Leader, Vol. 2(2) Aug. 1993

Replant Problem is Hard on the Pocketbook

by George Geldart, P.Ag., Farm Management Specialist BCMAFF, Vernon

When you are evaluating new apple planting options for your orchard, it is important to assess the factors which influence financial success. In order of impact on profitability, these factors are price, timing and level of production, and tree and system costs. One condition which influences productivity is replant problem. It has been recognized as a major cause of poor vigour and delayed cropping in new plantings.

The loss of income from replant problem in a new apple planting can be high. I have used the Central Axe production system planted at 670 trees per acre to look at how a reduction in yield due to replant problem affects returns.

In the Okanagan, total production of apples from this system over the first five years is expected to be around 82.3 pounds per tree, or just under 70 bins per acre. This cumulative yield results from per tree production as follows: 2.3 pounds in Year 2, 12.2 pounds in Year 3, 28.2 pounds in Year 4, and 39.6 pounds in Year 5. Although there has been some variability above and below these figures, horticulturists generally expect this system and density to produce this volume of apples in the first five years.

The extent of yield reduction from apple replant problem is made very clear in the article by Tim Smith in this newsletter. Although we cannot determine the exact impact that replant problem will have on a new planting's productivity, we can assess the potential reduction in income for various combinations of average prices and expected yields.

Chart 1 summarizes the gross income loss over the first five years for various percentages of expected yields. At 25 cents per pound average price, we would expect to have a total gross income of $13,785 on a one-acre planting. If yields are reduced to 70 percent of expectation due to replant problem, the planting would generate only $9,649 at the same average price -- a reduction of $4,136. This loss in potential gross income can be even higher -- more than $11,000 per acre at 50 percent of expected yields and 40 cents per pound average price. Chart 2 presents a different view of the example at 70 percent of production and 25 cents per pound average price.

Chart 2: Impact of Replant Problem on Income 

The price ranges in Chart 1 are set at an average price for various percentages of expected yields. You should also consider the price cycle of the variety you are planting. How long will it continue to enjoy relatively high prices? The impact of reduced yields in the first years of the planting may mean lost opportunities resulting from producing fewer apples in years of good prices for new varieties. For example, if your production is reduced and/or delayed due to replant problem in the initial years of the planting, prices may have declined by the time your planting gets into production. This would further affect the loss due to replant problem.

From this brief analysis it can be seen that the impact of replant problem on gross income potential in new plantings can be significant. Extending the analysis to 10 years would show a corresponding reduction in the economic viability of the planting.

The question you need to ask is whether you can afford not to manage replant problem. Although the specific causes of replant problems may be hard to identify, the impact on the bottom line is not.

With each situation being different, it is critical to evaluate all aspects of the replant problem to work toward the financial success of your planting. Can you afford to lose up to $11,000 per acre? There are both risks and rewards in new apple plantings. Managing the factors you can control will help improve chances of success and financial reward.

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